Comments on: The Data: Adjusted Final Price

By: Rob Walker

Rob Walker — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:25:56 +0000

Paula raises an interesting issue, but I think we have to stick to our guns and just go with actual prices paid. I’ve had lots of people say to me, “Oh if I’d known about that one I definitely would have bid,” regarding some of our earlier stories. That said — I’m really sorry that esnipe failed!

By: Joshua Glenn

Joshua Glenn — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 04:44:38 +0000

PS: Metal Boot Peak Effect, good moniker. I encourage readers offering theories to give their theories titles like this one!

By: Joshua Glenn

Joshua Glenn — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 04:43:55 +0000

We haven’t actually calculated week-to-week averages yet (we’ll do that and put the info in a bar chart soon) so that will be interesting, Mimi, to check out.

We should also calculate the median price, stuff like that.

This coming week we’re going to focus our attention on the narratives, not the objects. What sorts of moods, voices, themes, styles, are associated with the top-ranked objects? Wonder if any striking patterns will emerge?

By: Mimi

Mimi — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 02:08:00 +0000

I have an admittedly unscientific theory, which I’ll call the Metal Boot Peak Effect. I believe that there was a tipping point in Week 4 after which some process of disinhibition caused the possible peak price to shoot up for those objects with a certain X-factor. I’d speculate that a few items from Weeks 1-3 suffered inasmuch as they would have gone for much higher prices after the Metal Book Peak Event (Luc Sante’s Sanka Ashtray comes to mind), but the final prices for most items weren’t much affected by the Duration Factor. That is, I think these post MBPE peaks may be skewing your week-to-week averages.

Thoughts?

By: metheothertwin

metheothertwin — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:29:39 +0000

wow-that’s a lot of analyizing! It’s a complicated issue.
There were several items I liked- the #58 Umbrella Trinket, the #47 Lighter and the #7 Metal Boot. They were very ‘male’ to me (I am one) and though I’m not much of a shopper, these were things I would consider purchasing. (Added to that was my perceived value of what I would top out at spending which was probably no more than $25)
What really completed them as a ‘good purchase’ were the stories attached. This was not true for other objects. If I hated the object, no story was going to save it, no matter how good the story.
Now if it were for a charity,that would probably change everything again.

By: Joshua Glenn

Joshua Glenn — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:44:08 +0000

Top Ten (actually Eleven, because of three-way tie for 9th place) objects, before adjustment: Russian Figure, Indian Maiden, Wooden Animal, Pink Horse, “Hawk” Ashtray, 4-Tile, Metal Boot, Cape Cod Shoe, Fish Spoons, Fake Banana, Missouri Shotglass.

Top Ten objects after adjustment: Russian Figure, Indian Maiden, Wooden Animal, “Hawk” Ashtray, Pink Horse, Metal Boot, 4-Tile, Cape Cod Shoe, Duck Tray, Mallet.

It’s striking how similar the Top Ten remains after adjustment. The top three objects remain the same in both scenarios, and they’re in the same order! After adjustment, “Hawk” Ashtray and Pink Horse swap places at #4 and #5. Metal Boot and 4-Tile swap places at #6 and #7. Cape Cod Shoe stays at #8. This suggests that our Top Eight objects truly deserve to be rated MOst Significant, regardless of Duration Factor.

Duck Tray and Mallet, both from Week 12, are the newcomers, at #9 and #10, edging out Fish Spoons, Fake Banana, and Missouri Shotglass, all of which made it into the (unadjusted) Top Ten thanks to the Duration Factor — they’re from Weeks 15, 16, and 19.

It’s also striking that adjustment for Duration Factor doesn’t change the overall results *that much*. Objects that ranked in the unadjusted Top Twenty, Thirty, Forty, and so forth tend to remain there, even if they’ve swapped places with similarly ranked objects.

However, it looks to me as though a few objects did jump up quite a bit in the rankings: Necking Team Button, Smiley Mug, Halston Mug, JFK Bust, Creamer Cow, Miniature Bottle, Chili Cat Figurine, maybe Sanka Ashtray — all from Week One. And a few objects from late in the project — Flip-Flop Frame, Umbrella Trinket, maybe Toothbrush Holder and Swiss Medal — look like they’ve dropped quite a bit. But before we can say any of this with certainty, I need to add another column to this table: Adjusted Sales Rank.

What is everybody else seeing? Any patterns I’m missing? Am I mistaken in my observations or analysis? Discuss!

By: Paula Newman

Paula Newman — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:06:16 +0000

I realize that “might have been” does not factor into your analysis, but I do think that the final auction amount for the Missouri Shot Glass, with story by Jonathan Lethem, should be adjusted, since its final price would have been higher had it not been for an event that caused me to change my ebay password in early September.

I placed my bid for the shot glass in esnipe, and had forgotten to update the site with my new ebay password. They let me know that the password was not correct, and I updated it, but left out a number, so they were not able to enter my bid. My max bid was $105.50. There is no way to know the winning bidder’s max bid, but if I had not made that mistake, the shot glass would probably have gone for at least $86, if not more. Or maybe the other bidder’s max was even higher than mine, and it would have gone for $106 or more!

The bottom line is, there was someone out there who was willing to pay $105.50 for the shot glass because she liked the story so much, but remote causes kept that from happening.